Climate change and the poor

Climate change caused by global warming is a hard and bitter reality now. World leaders and activists have risen to the occasion lately; intercontinental level discussions after discussions have been held over the recent years to agree on ways and means to mitigate effect of and adapt to this unwelcome change. But any adequately effective and agreed measure is yet to be on card. The latest Copenhagen conference has also unfortunately experienced more discord than consensus. Meanwhile the scourge is assuming further gravity for the vulnerable.

Carl Pope, executive director of the Sierra Club, one of America's most influential environmental organisations, writes on projection: "The climate models ran and ran, and ran again. Big chunks of Antarctica plunged spectacularly into the sea, while glaciers in the Himalayas quietly withered away, and Kilimanjaro got browner and browner. Finally the scientists concluded their long debate: not only could human activity disrupt and destroy the stability of the world's climate, it was measurably doing so. The rest of us tried not to listen. But we need to" (India Today, Dec 14, 2009).

Yes, we need to, not only listen but act too, now. Because it is already late; we must not allow it to be too late.

Well, global warming is a natural process, but so slow in progression that it never have been anyway significant until late last century when people started to feel the heat to their utter concern. They traced back to find the cause in their own doing: the process has been more human induced than natural following the industrial revolution. And since then there has been no let up in the excessive emission of CFC and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. With the increase in population coupled with unabated consumerism this heating up process has only gained momentum for worse over the recent decades. "Nineteen of the world's 20 warmest years have occurred since 1980". 

But for this not all humans are equally responsible, nor all are equally capable of mitigating the scourge themselves. But when this malady is global, the measures to face it also has to be global -- logically the most emitters helping the least emitters in that.

Although the COP15 Copenhagen has been termed by many as failure, there has been some hopeful outcome to note. The Kyoto Protocol, an international initiative to deal with the problem, was adopted in 1997 but the US, the largest greenhouse gas producer, refused to sign it. This time at Copenhagen it has been a US led deal. Under the initiative of US President Barak Obama, China, India, Brazil, South Africa struck it while there has been pledges that rich (industrialised) countries would provide dollar 30 billion over the next three years and dollar 100 billion a year from 2020 to developing countries. The US, however, announced the lowest pledge of contributing dollar 3.6 billion between 2010 and 2012 while Japan would contribute dollar 11 billion and the EU dollar 10.6 billion.

But the deal has no legal binding. There has been an agreement to arrest global temperature rise at 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial level by 2050. This implies considerable cut in carbon emission over the next 40 years. But would it be realised under a non-binding accord, many doubt. So reasonably many are not satisfied with the COP15 outcome. However, there are also reasons for Bangladesh to feel a bit otherwise. It has been recognised as one of a few countries most vulnerable to global warming and climate change. At least some fund must be available for it to adopt coping measures. Bangladesh consequently finds some solace in the face of mounting miseries due to climate change ravages.

Poor vulnerable countries, including Bangladesh, have already started to bear the brunt of climate change impact. Bangladesh is more frequently visited by devastating cyclones now than ever before and is set to lose 15 percent of its landmass to the rising sea turning 10 percent of its population climate refugees. Damage to Bangladesh's coastal infrastructure is apprehended to amount upto 12 percent of its GDP by 2010, not to speak of how frightening it would be by 2050. According to one estimate, 65 percent of greater Khulna, 99 percent of Barisal, 100 percent of Patuakhali, 44 percent of Noakhali and 12 percent of Faridpur districts will be inundated.

As a result 13.74 percent of cropped area and about 401,600 hectares of mangrove forest with its unique wildlife will be lost. Crop loss will be in millions of tons. The salinity intrusion upward will entail further production loss in agriculture. The total losses of assets and production in small and cottage industries sector are estimated to be Tk 1078 million and Tk 981.553 billion, respectively, not to speak of other industrial and trading losses.

These losses will lead to increased poverty and decreased food security, increased unemployment and decreased accommodation capacity, pushing society to a jeopardy. Climate change will increase incidence of diseases with addition of new affliction and vectors. Vulnerable poor countries consequently having less withstanding capacity will simply suffer more. They need adequate support -- global support to counter their respective local climate change afflictions.

Well, the problems would vary from region to region, place to place, and local efforts are a must to overcome these. Local experts and administration understand their local problems better. Whatever the source of fund local undertakers are required to utilise that. At the Conference also, while raising demand for support to mitigate climate change impacts by LDCs, there has been suggestions by many for local initiative towards ensuring effective encounter.

Like elsewhere Bangladesh also has a local government system which may take the initiative of implementing or permit other appropriate undertakers to implement special climate change mitigation and adaptation programmes. Such programmes, in fact, shall not be much different from other development projects. So there is understandably not much difficulty in assuming and achieving them. But there is little time left for contemplation. Climate is changing rapidly than thought and its impact is already being felt. This will mount and profoundly affect us and subsequent generations. The only way out is our own challenge to slow the process, to lessen our vulnerability and adapt to changed conditions.

If we are serious and sincere in our pledge to reduce green house gas emission, it would not be very difficult to bring down global mean temperature below 2 degree Celsius above pre-industrial period by the target period or even before.

Locally we can go for greening (afforestation) projects wherever possible. But, sadly enough of late media is very frequently coming up with reports of denudation of plantations by "miscreants having links with people that matter". This speaks of no sincerity, no seriousness attached to speech. There must be very stringent law against deforestation and exemplary action against perpetrators. And we can go for clean energy -- wind power, solar power -- as much possible. However, windmills in coastal belt run the risk of being affected by cyclones and solar panels will not work during the monsoon. But then we can embark upon some solution measures, ways must be found for survival's sake.

As a least developed country we need to develop; the world want us to develop. Thus we cannot curtail our modest industrialisation process but can cut emission, whatever small it is. In that the developed world has to help us with improved, efficient technologies. In our case at the moment the brick kilns appear to be the most emitters. They should be made to refrain from burning fossil fuels and adapt to efficient energy use step by step.

In agriculture we have to adapt to further intensive cropping patterns, for a substantial portion of cropland will be lost under the climate impact, and we have to undergo a massive rehabilitation programme as well. We have also to undertake an extensive campaign to aware people about the climate change -- how and why it happens, and enlighten them of the necessity for mitigation and adaptation measures. This is also necessary for involving the people in the process. Because, all inclusive the task is simply huge; not feasible for administration machinery or a few agencies to shoulder it alone.

Besides, or outside of, government, NGOs have a proven record of undertaking and accomplishing large public interest projects involving individuals as well as communities. The sphere includes healthcare, education, water and sanitation, afforestation, farming, microcredit and poverty alleviation. They can be effectively engaged in alleviating climate change suffering of the people as well utilising their experience and capability. Small industries also can come under some NGOs' SME programmes for employment and rehabilitation of the displaced.

Poor countries' cry for help is by all counts justified. The poor obviously suffer most during any calamity not to speak of the climate change impact -- the calamity of scale. The NGOs have experience of working with and for the poor in some cases more than government agencies themselves. They have experience of involving their network during emergency situations, like flood and cyclone, in relief and rehabilitation service.

Government can chalk out programmes for the poor and vulnerable according to evolving situation or ask NGOs to submit theirs and get approved. Then it can embark upon that at local government level or whatever with NGOs, or ask them to run theirs under its supervision or whatever process plausible. The objective is to serve most the most vulnerable -- the poor -- to help them mitigate and adapt to the climate change situation. This has to be accomplished in whatever way and with whatever means possible.

--Shariful Alam Sharif